Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Nine meals from anarchy
Monday 11 January 2010

A cold snap shows how fragile our supply of food and fuel is. We need a more sustainable system


'Man has lost the �capacity to �foresee and forestall," wrote Albert Schweitzer. A colossal banking crisis and a big freeze in the middle of what was meant to be a mild winter don't encourage confidence to the contrary.

Reassurance is fine as long as it's well founded. And in the midst of fears about gas supplies and the panic buying of food Gordon Brown is hardly likely to scream that we are all doomed. It is, after all, his job to tell us that all will be well. But will it? People were shocked at the scale of social breakdown when Hurricane Katrina revealed a long-term, creeping erosion of civic resilience. Are we just waking up to the fact that several wrong turns have left our essential supplies much more vulnerable than they need to be?

In 2004 Britain ceased to be able to meet its energy needs domestically. Since then our dependence on imports, particularly of natural gas, has risen dramatically. The situation can only worsen as gas is subject to the same iron law of depletion as oil, and its moment of peak production lags not far behind.

Similarly, Britain's ability to feed itself has been in long-term decline, and food prices are reportedly rising in the cold spell. It was only two years ago that droughts in Australia caused a crisis in world grain supplies; in April 2008 food crises affected at least 37 countries and there were related riots in many. As climate change and volatile oil prices destabilise global agriculture, we are becoming more dependent on food and energy imports just as the geopolitics of both make it less likely that the world will generously meet our needs.

This year is the 10th anniversary of the fuel protests, when supermarket bosses sat with ministers and civil servants in Whitehall warning that there were just three days of food left. We were, in effect, nine meals from anarchy. Suddenly, the apocalyptic visions of novelists and film-makers seemed less preposterous. Civilisation's veneer may be much thinner than we like to think.

Part of the problem lies in the infrastructure that emerges from a market system focused on narrow cost savings. The result is easily disrupted just-in-time supermarket food supply lines, and a risky assumption that anything we need can easily be bought on global markets. The latter becomes problematic when in response to global shortages, governments around the world understandably choose to meet their domestic needs first. In Britain, not only are our strategic fuel reserves low by international comparison, our strategic food reserves are history.

One response to the vulnerability revealed in 2008 has been the rise of the so-called land grab. Several wealthy countries and companies have targeted up to 20m hectares of productive farmland in poor countries for acquisition and control. In Madagascar, public outcry led to the government's fall.

As a child I was quietly haunted by Doris Lessing's book The Memoirs of a Survivor. Society had broken down, and people were on the move, displaced amid an increasingly brutal disorder. The presiding government was useless but just about able to "adjust itself to events, while pretending probably even to itself that it initiated them".

Events are revealing that many of the things we take for granted, like bank accounts, fuel and food, are vulnerable. If we value civilisation, the litmus test for economic success should not be short-term profitability, but resilience in the face of climatic extremes and resource shortages. When Gordon Brown meets Cobra, the civil contingencies committee, this week, item one should be the transition to a more sustainable food and energy system.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...ainable-system

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Food costs to soar as big freeze deepens
Saturday 9 January 2010

� Farmers struggle to harvest supplies
� Brown chairs urgent talks on crisis


Britons have been warned to brace themselves for an increase in food prices as plunging temperatures leave farmers unable to harvest vegetables and hauliers struggle to distribute fresh produce.

Gordon Brown, who will chair a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee early this week to discuss the freeze, was today forced to reassure the country that it would not run out of gas or grit for its roads during the coldest weather in 30 years.

Police confirmed today that the weather-related death toll had risen to 26. A 90-year-old woman froze to death in her garden near Barnsley after falling in the snow. Widow Mary Priestland was discovered when her neighbour called round to make her tea. A 42-year-old Newcastle woman died after being found lying in the snow this morning. She had told her family she was going for a walk at 7pm on Friday.

Concerns have now switched to food supply. Sub-zero temperatures have made it impossible to extract some vegetables from the ground. Producers of brussels sprouts and cabbages are all reporting problems with harvesting. Cauliflowers are said to have turned to "mush" in the sustained frost, with the result that only imported ones are available � at more than �2 each.

"Food is selling fast and there is a problem with replenishing it," said Stephen Alambritis of the Federation of Small Businesses. "One business I spoke to said it was like Christmas Eve, with people rushing to buy up food. This will inevitably have an impact on food prices."

Food prices had already started to edge up after a sustained period of low inflation. Food inflation increased by 3.7% in December, up from 2.8% in November, said the British Retail Consortium.

In Ireland, 6,000 acres of potatoes remains unharvested and there are claims that up to three-quarters of the crop may be ruined. Potato growers in Northern Ireland say they are facing some of the biggest losses in recent history because of frost damage.

Meanwhile, greengrocers in some of the worst-hit areas are reporting shortages, with the price of carrots and parsnips reportedly rising by 30% in some small shops. A spokesman for the National Farmers' Union said: "There are isolated examples of farms struggling to get milk supplies out, but so far the majority of farmers, although finding it difficult, are getting on with the job." Milk suppliers in Somerset said they feared they may have to dump 100,000 litres of organic milk because tankers could not get through.

In a move that underscores the severity of the situation, on Monday the government will permit an emergency relaxation of European laws regulating the driving hours for hauliers involved in the distribution of animal feed. Under the temporary rules, the hauliers will be allowed to drive for 10 hours rather than the EU maximum of nine. There will also be a reduction in their mandatory daily rest requirements, from 11 to nine hours.

Today, the prime minister insisted gas supplies were not running out, despite record levels of demand. In a podcast from Downing Street, Brown said: "I can assure you: supplies are not running out. We've got plenty of gas in our own backyard � the North Sea � and we also have access to the large reserves in Norway and Netherlands."

Last week, nearly 100 large businesses were forced to stop using gas in an attempt to conserve supplies.

Brown also tried to allay concerns over salt stocks. "Working with the suppliers and the highway authorities, we are making sure stocks of salt to grit roads and pavements get to where they're most needed," he said.

On Friday, a government emergency planning committee met to discuss the UK's state of preparation if the cold weather continues. The committee heard the country has a stockpile of 320,000 tonnes of gritting salt, but transport sources suggest the UK is getting through 60,000 tonnes a day, more than four times the amount produced.

Further supplies are due to arrive from Spain and the US later this month. However, some have questioned how the UK will cope if these supplies prove insufficient and the cold snap returns. "The government has failed to build up a strategic Highways Agency reserve and ministers have sat on their hands," said the Conservatives' local government spokeswoman, Caroline Spelman.

Edmund King, president of the AA, said he had raised concerns about salt supplies before Christmas. "We were not assured that everyone was as prepared as they should have been� and that's why I wrote to the Local Government Association in November, prior to the cold snap," King told the BBC. "There is more we could have done."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2010/ja...oar-big-freeze

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

People were shocked at the scale of social breakdown when Hurricane Katrina revealed a long-term, creeping erosion of civic resilience.

What did that FOOL just say????

That's like the French Captain telling Rick, "I'm shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED that there's gambling in this saloon"...

This as the gambling boss hands the Captain his winnings...

CREEPING EROSION OF CIVIC RESILIENCE?

You mean the total breakdown of society?

BECAUSE a Class 5 Hurricane put half your town underwater because corrupt politicians stole money that should have gone into making GOOD levee's to actually KEEP the water out during the worst hurricanes. That's what it SHOULD have done.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Snow threat to Britain's vegetable crop
11 Jan 2010

There were fears today about dwindling supplies of vegetables and higher prices in the shops as the big freeze hits the crop harvest.


Small business have warned stocks of produce such as potatoes, sprouts and cabbages have been running low as farmers struggle to get them out of the ground - pushing up prices as a result.

Stephen Alambritis, chief spokesman for the Federation of Small Businesses, said: ''Our members have had a run on vegetables and food, which they were pleased about because it brought them in some money - but the replacements have been thin on the ground.

''There is concern that farmers have not been able to bring the harvest in for such items as potatoes, sprouts and cabbages which reduces the amount available to stores - and pushes up prices.

''Supermarkets may be able to hold prices for now but small businesses will have to pass increases on to their customers, which is damaging for business.''

He added: ''Even the supermarkets may have to push up prices if this goes on until February.''

The federation has 215,000 members, including 20% in the retail and food sectors.

Sarah Pettitt, a vegetable grower in Fishtoft, Lincolnshire, and chairman of the Horticulture and Potato Board of the National Farmers' Union, said the frozen ground was causing problems for producers everywhere.

''We are talking about cabbages, cauliflowers, spring greens, leeks,'' she said.

''Where we would use a harvester we are having to throw 100 people at a field to do the job by hand.

''Then we are having to thaw out the produce in storage.

''Farmers are having to be innovative and to use desperate measures to do the harvesting.

''Shortages are not imminent yet, but we do not know how long this is going to last.''

Richard Dodd, spokesman for the British Retail Consortium, which represents the top 10 British food retailers, and thousands of smaller businesses, said: ''This is still only a short spell of cold weather, and there is no evidence at all that retailers are having difficulties getting enough supplies not to meet normal levels of customer demand, or that this is going to last long enough to make any difference to shop prices of produce.

''There are much more significant factors affecting food prices such as the price of oil and exchange rates.''

A spokesman for Defra said: ''There are no reports of major problems with food supplies reaching retailers.

''Because the UK has a diverse supply of food from domestic and international suppliers we're not reliant on just one source of food, which helps maintain stability of supply as well as helping to keep prices stable.''

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/we...able-crop.html

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Is this the end of food as we know it?
10 Jan 2010

A new film paints an apocalyptic picture of a world reduced to tinned goods. But could it ever happen here, asks Bee Wilson


In Cormac McCarthy's The Road, (the film of which is out this weekend), the only food left is in cans. In a post-apocalyptic wasteland, a father and son scavenge for tinned goods. "Chili, corn, stew, soup, spaghetti sauce. The richness of a vanished world."

Is this a vision of our not-too-distant future? Will we soon be stockpiling canned mandarin segments and clawing one another's eyes out for the last tin of powdered milk in Tesco? It's not a nice thought, but it's one that food campaigners have been begging us to face up to for some time now. In this uncertain world, we can no longer take our food supply for granted. For years, academics such as Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy at City University, gave warning that we were "sleepwalking" into a future where our food security was likely to be seriously undermined, whether by natural disasters, rising fuel costs, climate change or the massive pressures placed on the global food system by a rising population. We shrugged it off, setting off in our cars for another wasteful trolley of ready-meals.

In 2008, American pundit Paul Roberts published The End of Food. Roberts argued that the "bullet" attacking the world's food system could come from any number of sources: avian flu, "a sharp spike in the price of oil, a series of extreme weather conditions, an outbreak of some new plant disease". Any one of these, and we'll be scrabbling in the canned goods aisles. More than one at once, and there might be no canned good aisles left to scrabble in. In April 2008, when spiralling food prices led to riots around the globe, people in Haiti were reduced to eating mud cakes.

At least that level of food anxiety could never happen in Britain. Or could it? For years, the Government told us everything was fine. This was a land of plenty. Only four years ago, Gordon Brown's Treasury assured us that food security in Britain was not an issue because we were a rich country, and could buy food from wherever we chose, as if the world were our personal larder. Now, finally, as The Sunday Telegraph reported last week, the Government has woken up to the problem. A new report launched on Tuesday entitled Food 2030 gives a warning that Britain can no longer afford to be complacent. "We need to think differently about food," said Gordon Brown in his foreword to the report, produced by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Setting out a new food strategy for the next two decades, the report says that the industry needs to prepare for "sudden shocks" such as natural disasters or price spikes. Britain will need to produce more food, we are told, but will have to do so sustainably, "without damaging the air, soil, water and marine resources, biodiversity and climate that we all depend on".

Here was a long overdue acknowledgment that farming is actually pretty essential. Unlike Gordon Brown, food is something we can't do without. Labour has hardly been the countryside's best friend. But at last, the "2030" report tells us the obvious truth that "the natural environment and the economy are intrinsically linked". The food and farming sector employs 3.6 million people. It is in everyone's interests to see this sector thrive. Britain will never be 100 per cent self-sufficient: life would be miserable without the imported pleasures of coffee, tea or spice. But the more food we can produce locally, the more secure our food supply will be in the event of sudden blips in the supply chain. UK farming, states the Defra report, "should produce as much food as possible, as long as it is responsive to demand".

Well said! Except that very little in the report suggests that this dying Labour government is going to take any serious steps to make the necessary renaissance in British farming come about. The Government wants us all to eat a "healthy and sustainable diet". Yet instead of any real reform, we are directed to "an enhanced eat-well website". There is a pointed lack of any mention of organic food. The report blethers about such things as the "milk roadmap" and the "fruit and vegetable task force". But there is no serious new injection of either money or laws to aid farmers. Sustain, a lobbying alliance for better food and farming, has already attacked the report as "soft", complaining that it constitutes a "series of minor tweaks to our fundamentally unsustainable food system".

By raising the idea of improving self-sufficiency, the "2030" report only brings home the extent to which we have moved in the opposite direction in recent years. The problem of food security goes far beyond this country, but even by the standards of our European neighbours, Britain performs badly.

Look at fruit. In 1963, we grew around 30 per cent of our own fruit; now it is closer to 5 per cent. Compare this with France, which in 1963 grew enough fruit to feed 90 per cent of the population and still produces enough to feed 80 per cent; or Italy which produced around 110 per cent of its fruit needs in 1963 and still does today. We may not have Italy's sun-kissed orange groves, but we could still do better with the land we have. Over the past 13 years, our self-sufficiency in food overall has plummeted from 75 per cent to 60 per cent.

Take dairy. Our milk and cream are among the best in the world. Give a spoonful of British double cream to a Frenchman and he will swoon. Yet our dairy farmers are in a quandary, unable to sell their delicious product for more than it costs them to produce it. A litre of milk costs the consumer 70-80p, of which the farmer gets only 21-28p, the same as it costs to produce. No wonder countless dairy farmers leave the industry.

There is a similar predicament in the honey industry. There is huge demand for British honey, boosted partly by awareness of the worrying collapse in honeybee colonies. Yet in many shops, all native honey is gone by halfway through the year. Of the 400g of honey per person we consume every year, only 80g is British. The reason? We currently have a mere 300 professional beekeepers in this country, many of them nearing retirement age. It will only get worse unless something is done. When I attended a forum on the future of honeybees at No 10 Downing Street last September, many well-intentioned words were spoken about saving British bees and honey. Yet when I suggested to a Government advisor that they might think of subsidising honey farmers, he laughed nervously.

It is all too easy to attack the "2030" report for its typical Brownian mix of hypocrisy and impotence. I wonder, though, how many of us really have the stomach for root-and-branch reforms of our farming system. The Conservatives have said that they want action on sustainable food "with a supermarket ombudsman and legislation to enforce honest labelling if the retailers won't act". But David Cameron has stopped short of spelling out what the "sustainable farming" he favours might really entail.

Biologist Colin Tudge, organiser of the Campaign for Real Farming, says that our politicians are "dangerously deluded" about farming. "Feeding people is easy," says Tudge, but only if our farmers switch to a "maximum variety" system of agriculture which puts plants first and meat second. This would involve a complete redesign of agriculture.

The odds are, we won't get the crisis measures we need for our food system until the crisis has already hit. So let's hope that The Road is just a scary story, not a prophecy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddr...e-know-it.html


how much of this article rings true for north america ?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

So what are you trying to say? Stop beating around the bush just come out and say it.




I have a 12 pack of Mountian Dew and a case of Raman noodles I am good right?

:15_1_70v::4_1_72::4_1_72::4_1_72::4_1_72::4_1_72: :4_1_72:

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

You're about twice as prepped as the average American knucklehead......

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

US Farmers Plant Fewest Wheat Acres Since 1913
January 12, 2010

US farmers plant fewest winter wheat acres since 1913, Kansas seedings lowest since 1957


A government report shows the nation's farmers planted the fewest winter wheat acres this season since 1913.

The Agriculture Department reported Tuesday that the total acres of winter wheat for 2010 is 37.1 million acres, down 14 percent nationwide from last year.

The agency blames poor weather, low prices and the late row crop harvest for the decrease.

The largest acreage decreases are in Kansas, Montana, Oklahoma and Texas. A record low planting was reported in Nebraska.

Kansas, the nation's largest winter wheat producer, planted 8.6 million acres, down 8 percent from a year ago. It is the lowest planted wheat acreage in the state since 1957.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=9541856

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

It's not just the cold in the UK and US that's putting crops at risk. All this warm weather in Canada may come at a price too. A friend of mine emailed me from Canada this morning to let me know two of his six fruit trees are already budding. This means the sap is in the tree and they're exiting their winter stage. This shouldn't happen until April. Early budding is potentially catastrophic to Canadian fruit crops. If cold doesn't arrive very soon, more trees will exit hibernation. Then, when the cold does arrive, it will be frozen buds, splits, and winterkill that results. There's a limit to how much warm weather Canadian fruit bearing trees can withstand.

In addition, there's talk that the snow pack is exceptionally thin due to a combination of decreased precipitation and runoff due to high temperatures. This is directly following a minor drought year in 2009. This snowpack is the source of Canadian drinking water and irrigation. If the winter damages the trees, it is primarily irrigation that helps damaged trees recover. This means that the irrigation requirements will increase, despite the probability of a water shortage.

When places like the UK and US undergo crop failures, such as those caused by the freak cold they have now, it's common to look to the other breadbaskets of the world. It's not looking too good for the Canadian harvest though; preppers be advised.

PS. My friend is no doom-'n-gloomer. He's upbeat and positive all the time. Hearing this from him alarms me.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Freeze may have damaged 30% of crops
January 14, 2010


TAMPA - Thirty percent of Florida's crops may have been lost in the cold snap, Florida's agriculture commission says, but for now it appears that the Bay area's strawberries avoided catastrophe.

Overall, certain crops in Florida were whacked hard by the sub-freezing temperatures, while others lucked out. Still, Florida Agriculture and Consumer Services Commissioner Charles Bronson said the crop losses probably run into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Suffering the most is aquaculture, or the raising of tropical fish that are sold for homeowners' fish tanks. Among the industries affected by the cold weather are:

Strawberries: Plant City is the epicenter of the state's strawberry industry, which is worth at least $350 million annually, said Ted Campbell, executive director of the Florida Strawberry Growers Association.

Strawberry growers watered their crops around the clock to encase them in a protective layer of ice. However, they have pumped so much groundwater that geologists said they helped to cause sinkholes in eastern Hillsborough.

Still, the constant watering appears to have worked, though there is no estimate of damage yet, Campbell said.

"In terms of saving the crop, we feel pretty lucky when compared to some other crops in Florida."

Citrus: Florida Citrus Mutual, an association of citrus growers, doesn't have estimates of damage either. There has been some damage to the fruit, but even if oranges have frozen, many can still be squeezed and processed into juice. The industry is still studying how much damage has been done to citrus trees, which could be more problematic, said Andrew Meadows, a Florida Citrus Mutual spokesman.

Overall, citrus in Florida is about a $1 billion industry, not counting several billion more in ripple effects, Meadows said.

Aquaculture: Losses in this roughly $50 million local industry have run from about 30 percent to 100 percent, depending on the farm, said Marty Tanner, a local fish farmer and president of the Florida Aquaculture Association.

Fish begin to struggle when water temperature dips below 60 degrees, and in the recent cold snap most outdoor ponds fell below 50 degrees, he said.

Tomatoes: At this point in the year, most of the Ruskin area's tomatoes have already been picked, and the industry has shifted south to Homestead, said longtime grower Paul DiMare.

What tomatoes DiMare was still growing in Ruskin have died, as have his tomatoes in Immokalee. DiMare was able to save 80 percent of his Homestead crop, he said.

Earlier this month, Gov. Charlie Crist allowed fruit harvesting trucks to exceed their normal weight limits to allow them to harvest more quickly. On Thursday, Bronson asked Crist to request an agriculture disaster declaration from the federal government, which would let farmers receive emergency assistance.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/jan...aged-30-crops/

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Food Shortages Coming, Buy Commodities: Jim Rogers
Friday, 15 Jan 2010


The financial crisis is likely to lead to food shortages in a few years because the agriculture sector is in dire need of funds, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Friday.

Buying distressed commodities is a better way to make money than investing in stocks, according to Rogers.

"The fundamentals (for agriculture) have gotten better," he said. "The inventories are now at the lowest they've been in decades, not in years."

"Sometimes in the next few years we're going to have very serious shortages of food everywhere in the world and prices are going to go through the roof."

Cotton and coffee are good buys because they are very distressed, while sugar, despite the fact that it has gone up a lot, is still down 70 percent from its all-time high, according to Rogers.

"I don't think that the problems of the world are behind us yet," he said.

Investors shouldn't bother with stocks because commodities are likely to win in both the optimistic and the pessimistic scenario, Rogers said.

If the economy rebounds, commodities prices will rise because of increased demand, while if the economy continues to be weak, central banks will keep printing money and commodities will be used as a hedge against inflation, he explained.

Rogers is holding on to oil and he is also holding on to gold, saying they are too expensive to buy but not worth selling.

"If you want to buy precious metals I'd rather buy silver and palladium, just because they're cheaper," he said.


Full Interview

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34874608

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Florida Freeze Kills Estimated 70% of Southwest Vegetable Crop

Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- At least 70 percent of southwest Florida�s winter crop of vegetables, including tomatoes and peppers, were destroyed by freezing weather, said Gene McAvoy, the director of the Hendry County extension office for the University of Florida.

Losses will be more than $100 million, McAvoy said today in a telephone interview. Tomatoes, peppers, squash and cucumbers are the major crops in the estimate, he said. In the U.S. winter, Florida provides about 70 percent of the tomatoes sold in the nation, McAvoy said from LaBelle, Florida.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aWMQ5CjkAL5M

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Strategic Grain Reserves � Sold Out?
January 12, 2010


I received a disturbing email yesterday regarding massive amounts of grain shipping out of the U.S. to foreign countries. Granaries that long stood idle are going full-bore. Miles and miles of rail cars are filled and ready to transport our wheat, oats and corn reserves for shipment out of country.


This underscores the Video of the Day we had posted over the weekend. If you missed it, at 2:55 minutes into the presentation, it explains how our grain reserve numbers are being manipulated so it looks like there has been no drop in tonnage.

We worry for our country during the next big disaster, whatever the cause. People who rely on their neighborhood grocery to fill needs at a moment's notice will freak when stores are empty. They'll realize they should have prepared long ago.


P Is for Panic

Did you see how a bad snowstorm initiates panic buying? It's the same tired lesson in every disaster; people still are 'last minute Charlies'. This same scenario witnessed in Kansas, Missouri and the UK must have repeated over and over in our countries during the last two weeks.

People in Venezuela picked shelves clean of food and durable goods in the last two days after Chavez sliced their currency in half. Chavez called in the National Guard to monitor grocery stores; they are ready for riots. Wouldn't that look bizarre seeing armed soldiers when you buy a gallon of milk?


http://standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Food_Wat...N.soldiers.jpg
Soldiers check prices at a supermarket, accused of raising prices, in Caracas, Monday, Jan. 11, 2009. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez threatened on Sunday to seize businesses that raise prices as a result of last week's devaluation of Venezuela's currency. (AP)

It was unnerving having armed soldiers meet us on the tarmac in Seoul, S. Korea 25 years ago. Their permanent sandbag bunkers said they were always prepared for trouble. Americans just aren't used to this "armed participation", but the time is coming when we're going to see it as standard procedure.


P Is for Practice

What raised my alarm bells last week was a little covered story about a test of the National Emergency System. It was conducted in Alaska on Jan. 6 for a full 3 minutes. When has there EVER been a test for a nationwide emergency, one that can only be activated by the President? Never. Not ever. This was a first.


Doesn't that tell you something?

After posting that news item I expected a flood of email expressing concern, posing questions, reporting other weird events. There was dead silence on this issue.

What will be the norm when the US dollar dissolves or is massively devalued or Wall Street crashes again or the rumored bank holiday comes to fruition or a disaster shuts your grocery or truckers no longer run? Friends, unpleasant as it is, you've got to consider these possibilities.

You have food at the store for 3 days in good times. Panic cuts down food-on-shelves to hours, not days.

It again demonstrates that people wait to the last minute to get their prep act together.

For those relying primarily on precious metal stashes, gold and silver reserves won't solve the problem. Those who have understanding know that cash will not be king much longer � that metals are better than dollars. However, when things really hit the fan, people will hold onto their food reserves and other tangible necessities, and precious metals won't buy anything.

Turning Points

Gold looks great in your Rolex and it fills tooth cavities, but you can't eat metal. As it says in scripture, your gold and silver will be as 'rust' (James 5:3). Bullion is a good hedge against inflation and a cratering market, but it won't keep your stomach full, it won't keep you warm and it's no substitute for medical supplies. The actual goods you have stored is what will help you through tough times.

Even as a kid I always wanted to know how things worked, to learn how to do stuff, to be independent and not put my fate in the hands of others. It was better not to bug someone else to stop whatever task they were doing and lend a hand. These feelings have only multiplied over the years. Ignorance breeds vulnerability.

Watergate was the turning point when I realized you can't trust politicians. Looking back at that whole debacle, it seems tame compared to what we witness on The Hill today. Integrity is gone. Politicians are self-serving, not serving their constituents. When skewered for explanations, adamant denial is the response. No one is ever guilty and if they're caught in the act without recourse, off they go to rehab. They are addicted to dope, booze, sex, porn and most of all, power. Lies are all we hear. If we are told long enough that a purple vase is green, we start to wonder if we need glasses.

For fact, we are running on borrowed time. Government today is not what our founders envisioned. Selling out our grain reserves after a lousy, no, ''worst-on-record harvest' for many farmers is unforgivable. It gambles our future in a rigged game.


P Is for Planting

As we look around and see many Americans so ill-prepared, so oblivious to what's going on in our beautiful Nation, our hearts sink. They won't be ready to fend for themselves. Many will feel defeated from the get-go and won't even try. Find your backbone and get busy! It is not too late, not yet.

Over the last several years, Stan and I have talked casually with neighbors about preparing, planted the seed. We've given them copies of Dare To Prepare so they, too, can be ready. It's a tiny investment for peace of mind. In the long run you'll have helped yourself in addition to your friends, because they won't be banging on your door for food and medicine.

For neighbors haven't prepared, you will have to make a painful decision on who you can afford to help and those you will turn away. You can't feed everybody... It's about to get ugly.


Read Judy's email on the grain shipments and then watch the videos:

I have more to tell you on this now. My friend was driving through Tacoma the other night while we were talking on the phone about this whole grain thing. AS we were talking she drove down 56th Street in Tacoma. She suddenly stopped and let out a holler!

She saw right in front of her at the exact time we were talking, a HUGE building that has been shut down for a long, long time. It was an old granary..... She was shocked because it was up and running on full speed ahead! She said there was grain everywhere! SHE HADN'T SEEN IT LIKE THIS IN YEARS! So something is definitely up!

Then the next day she called me to say on the news she heard the report that Portland, Oregon was out of containers at their main shipping/transportation place. I am not sure of the details on this one but she was surprised at how all of a sudden there are problems with all this. Something is up. I will let you know more as I find out things.....

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Dr. William Mount videotapes the mass shipment of grain out of the U.S. from Tacoma, WA on Nov. 4, 2009, 12:45 at night. Rarely used grain elevators to ocean liners were seen, along with 4-5 miles of railway cars filled with U.S. grain


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Dr. Mount continues videotaping the mass shipment of grain out of the U.S. from Tacoma, WA. Witness 4 to 5 miles of rail cars filled with U.S. grain. He believes our grain is being purposely off-loaded to trigger a massive food shortage in the near future. He states the U.S. has no strategic food reserves.

http://standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Food_Wat....Mt.grain.html

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Zimbabwe: Country Faces Food Shortages
19 January 2010


Harare � Zimbabwe is facing massive food shortages again this year with crops already wilting in many parts of the country due to a prolonged dry spell.

The United States funded Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET), in its latest forecast predicts that as a result of the poor rainfall and the severe shortage of agriculture inputs, 2.2 million Zimbabweans would need food aid.

This means that people who will need urgent food aid between January and March has increased from the 1.7 million projected at the end of last year.

Close to half of Zimbabwe's population has depended on donors for food in the last nine years.

But hopes were heightened following the formation of a unity government between President Robert Mugabe and his former archrivals in February last year that the situation would improve.

In November last year, the United Nations reduced by almost 50 percent its request for donations to assist Zimbabwe's poor following positive changes in the economic situation.

Aid agencies now fear the cuts in funding will see more people going without food this year.

FEWSNET said the below average rainfall and high temperatures in the southern half of the country over the past three weeks had seen most crops wilting due to moisture stress.

"Since December, below average precipitation and above average temperatures continue to help strengthen seasonal moisture deficits across central Mozambique, southern Malawi, southern Madagascar and southern Zimbabwe," FEWSNET said in the report covering Southern Africa.

The traditional food producing areas of Mashonaland have also received below average rainfall.

Mr Mugabe's government has already come under attack for poor planning as farmers are still battling to access fertliser, a couple of months before the summer cropping season comes to an end in April.

The unity government has also failed to stop the renewed attacks on white commercial farmers by Zanu PF militants trying to push the remaining few land owners under the previous administration's controversial land reforms.

Mr Renson Gasela, the spokesperson of the smaller faction of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said the poor season would be as a result of poor planning and climatic factors.

"We are faced with another disastrous agricultural season," says Gasela.

"But it's a combination of human and climatic factors that are causing this calamity."

The Commercial Farmers Union (CFU), which represents mainly the white farmers has already forecast a poor agricultural season citing continued invasion of white owned commercial farms as well as shortages of seed and fertiliser.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201001191056.html



Comment: Food Shortages Major Test for the GNU
Thursday 21 January 2010


ZIMBABWE is facing massive food shortages again this year with crops already wilting in many parts of the country due to a prolonged dry spell. In such a scenario it is easy for news media to come up with headlines suggesting that millions of people are facing mass starvation. Not so fast.

There will be no mass deaths induced by famine but as food stocks are exhausted, hunger will set in and trigger a negative chain of events which will hurt this fledgling economy.

more . . .

http://www.theindependent.co.zw/comm...r-the-gnu.html

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

One quarter of US grain crops fed to cars - not people, new figures show
Friday 22 January 2010

New analysis of 2009 US Department of Agriculture figures suggests biofuel revolution is impacting on world food supplies


One-quarter of all the maize and other grain crops grown in the US now ends up as biofuel in cars rather than being used to feed people, according to new analysis which suggests that the biofuel revolution launched by former President George Bush in 2007 is impacting on world food supplies.

The 2009 figures from the US Department of Agriculture shows ethanol production rising to record levels driven by farm subsidies and laws which require vehicles to use increasing amounts of biofuels.

"The grain grown to produce fuel in the US [in 2009] was enough to feed 330 million people for one year at average world consumption levels," said Lester Brown, the director of the Earth Policy Institute, a Washington thinktank ithat conducted the analysis.

Last year 107m tonnes of grain, mostly corn, was grown by US farmers to be blended with petrol. This was nearly twice as much as in 2007, when Bush challenged farmers to increase production by 500% by 2017 to save cut oil imports and reduce carbon emissions.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...-biofuels-food

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Foreign owned and grown food on Australian soil
Thursday, 25/06/2009

Overseas countries are looking to buy Australian farms to solve their food security problems.

Greg Mason from Queensland Department of Primary Industries says some countries are running out of water to grow food so investors are looking for greener pastures.

He recently hosted a group of Chinese investors who were interested in seeing farms similar to theirs in terms of climate and crops.

Keith De Lacy from the large irrigation property Cubby Station also heads up a property investment company.

He supports foreign investment because he says Australia needs the capital but resources need to be used more wisely.

A property adviser who works with an Arab state says his client is interested in buying farms in other countries that are culturally compatible; however Australia is in their sights.

The client wants to spend over one billion dollars on properties to grow grain, fruit, vegetables and live sheep.

Chris Evans from Rural Management Partners says his client prefers to own and grow the food rather than contract Australian growers because it wants control over the food supply.

http://www.abc.net.au/rural/tas/cont...6/s2608502.htm

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Spring food crisis may trigger economic collapse


You have maybe two months to stock up on the necessities of life before food prices rise dramatically, potentially prompting a food panic, widespread famine, and quite possibly the long-expected collapse of the U.S. economy.

Farmers across America and in many other parts of the world are calling 2009 the worst harvest they�ve ever seen in their lives, owing largely to extended bouts of bad weather. At the same time the U.S. Department of Agriculture is officially forecasting bumper crops, while close to three-fourths of the country�s farmland is in areas declared eligible for federal disaster assistance due to failed crops.

A popular farmers� Web site is chock full of stories of entire crops of soybeans rejected for moisture damage, long delays in harvesting corn only to find out the corn is moldy, damaged or too light to be used as animal feed or even ethanol, and farmers unsure if they�ll even have a farm for another year due to the losses they�ve taken.

Most agricultural products are purchased in futures, which are promises to deliver a quantity of a commodity at a future date. Futures carry many risks, prominent among them the possibility that the commodity simply won�t be available at the promised delivery date. While futures prices are set by the market, some of the information used to set the prices comes from the USDA�s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. The unrealistic 2009 bumper crop predictions in its recent reports, which may have seemed reasonable months ago before 2009�s long string of bad weather but which USDA has failed to revise, drove futures prices artificially low.

But grain futures prices have already risen well above the USDA�s latest projections as the corn harvest threatens to drag on into March in some areas of the country, thanks to an unusually wet 2009 and unprecedented fall flooding in the Midwest.

The good news is that even with 2009 being the worst harvest in human memory, there will still be plenty of food in the U.S. to feed everyone in the U.S. The bad news - if you�re in the U.S. - is that the food won�t be used to feed everyone in the U.S.

It seems China has finally figured out what to do with all the U.S. dollars it�s holding.[/COLOR] You�ll recall that the Federal Reserve took some pretty extreme measures over the last two years, ostensibly to save the U.S. economy. In fact, those measures have set us up the bomb. For decades China has been buying U.S. debt and financing Americans� credit addiction as well as the government�s massive spending on millions of projects it has no business being involved in. But, it seems, they�ve had enough of the dollar and are about to pull the plug.

In the meantime, China has been using those dollars to buy every morsel of American food it can get its hands on. Combined with 2009�s bad weather and the USDA�s ridiculous numbers, this prompted a late August soybean shortage which is expected to continue through 2010.

The U.S. has a very good reason to fudge the numbers on crop estimates. If it published realistic numbers, and crop futures prices rose sharply, three things would likely happen: Wall Street would take massive losses, inflation fears would cause investors to dump bonds, frustrating the government�s attempts to finance its incredible expanding debt, and most importantly, China, whose currency is tied closely to the U.S. dollar, would allow it to appreciate. That alone would likely send the U.S. dollar into freefall; all three would mean utter economic collapse.

Of course, you can�t fool the market for long; as noted above, futures prices are already well above the USDA�s numbers. All they really managed to do with their numbers game was buy the U.S. dollar another year of life.

One market analyst believes that the 2010 food shortage will be the catalyst which not only brings about the collapse of the U.S. economy, but takes down Great Britain and Japan with it.

While a food crisis was unavoidable to some extent because of the abnormal weather and financial crisis, the total panic which will soon grip world agricultural markets is a creation of the USDA and its fictitious production estimates. If not for the USDA�s interference, food prices would have risen in the first half of 2009 in anticipation of the 2009/10 shortage. The United States Department of Agriculture has caused incalculable damage to the world economy by encouraging overconsumption of rapidly diminishing food supplies.

Once the 2010 Food Crisis starts, confidence in the US government will be shattered as a result of the USDA�s faulty estimates. The starvation and misery caused by higher food prices will also create a lot of anger . . . - Market Skeptics

In this scenario, rural banks will begin failing rapidly, especially in the Midwest, and the inevitable bailouts will drive up U.S. debt further. These bailouts, combined with the Chinese allowing the yuan to appreciate, will erode confidence in the U.S. dollar to the point that foreign banks and investors begin dumping U.S. debt at fire sale prices. At that point the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to print money, leading directly to hyperinflation.

I shouldn�t have to tell you what hyperinflation will look like, but in case you need a reminder, it will likely make the Great Depression look like a minor recession. Tens of millions of people who have never known want in their entire lives are going to be shocked to wake up broke and hungry, with no idea what happened or why it happened to them. The government will almost certainly be unable to fulfill its promises of food stamps, social security and other such welfare programs. Food riots are likely and people will almost certainly die when the government attempts to put them down.

Worst of all, almost nobody will assign blame where it truly belongs: central banks and fiat currency.

Market Skeptics and many other foreign investors I�ve seen quoted widely in foreign media but virtually never in the U.S., recommend investing in agriculture, except derivatives, and in precious metals. I also recommend you invest in as much nonperishable food as you can lay hands on in the next two months, at least a year�s supply if you can manage it. If there�s no collapse, you can eat it, and if there is, you�ll at least have something to eat. And when you read a headline such as �Yuan allowed to rise versus dollar,� it�s time to head for the hills.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat...oodcrisis.html

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Thanks for the post, CG. Any other credible sites saying the same thing?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

I talked to a farmer recently who told me that the chinese are buying their soybeans above the futures price on the commodities exchange, i think he said by .50 cents. That doesn't sound like much to me, is that unusual? He seemed impressed they were paying that much.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

The issue isn't the price that the Chinese are willing to pay, but the fact that they're trying to buy all of our food and we're willing to export it to them. That should scare the crap out of us.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

anyone know what the futures price of soybeans is ?

and what % .50 cents is ?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Complete and utter b.s.

If your going to believe posts by someone who cant even locate the futures price of soyabeans you deserve to be scared out of your mind.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

I personally dont see any logic in determining the credibility of multiple mainstream articles based on whether or not someone at GIM knows the price of soybeans.

Perhaps there is somethng useful you can add to the thread?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

The article makes a great read assuming the underlying premise is accurate. It, however, has the hallmarks of scare-hype. Not a single number, name or link that can be checked and verified or discredited.

A little linky would be helpful.

Numbers? Does the USDA really project prices?

I'd be doing the same thing but a little proof would go a long way.

Ok, who? Wasn't it Faber or Kaiser who suggested buying a farm? But it was in connection with general prepping/SHTF not specifically targeted to a food shortage in 2 months.

There are dozens of seasoned market and/or trend forecasters who doubt all govt statistics and rely on independant info for analysis. Why haven't they picked up on any of this?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

The u.s is the worlds biggest food producer.
Last years crop wasnot a disaster.
Ag industry people know to the bushel how much grain is going to china.
There is no supply problem.

However...
Grain and food prices will continue to climb for the same reason gold will climb.
Investors like chinindia and rodgers will continue to buy farmland as an ivestment.This has already happened very near me as investment houses buy up real cheap land.

Eric sprotts name may ring a bell he is now in charge of one of the largest farms started up over night called one earth farms.

Delusional fear is a very horrible handicap.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Massive corporate farm venture planned for Western Canada

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Are you basing this on official government figure--they'd never lie to us, right???--or to what farmers are actually sending to market? I'm betting there's a huge difference between the two sets of figures.

Do you also believe that none of the gold at Fort Knox is really tungsten?

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

Frigid Winter Bad News for Tomato Lovers

With 70% of Fla.'s Crop Lost Due to Prolonged Cold Snap, Wholesale Prices Are Up Nearly 500%

http://www.standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Food...5.tomatoes.jpg

March 5, 2010
CBS

The Sunshine State is the main U.S. source for fresh winter tomatoes, and its growers lost some 70% of their crop during January's prolonged cold snap.

Photo: Ripe tomatoes are left to rot in a field Thursday, March 4, 2010, in Plant City, Fla. The recent cold weather in Florida has been especially hard on tomato farmers and is predicted to drive up prices at the grocery store. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Wholesale prices are up nearly five times over last year. That means you can say goodbye to the beefsteaks on that burger and prepare to pay more than usual for the succulent wedges in your salad.

At Costello Sandwich and Sides in Chicago, which uses 10 to 15 cases of tomatoes a week and is now paying $25 a case instead of $15, customers can expect to get a bit less tomato on their sandwiches. The shop hasn't raised prices or stopped serving tomatoes altogether, but manager Matthew Villareal says he can see the tomatoes are soft when the prep cooks are cutting them.

"The tomato prices definitely have gone up and the quality isn't so great either," he said. "We just kind of eat the cost."

An unusually cold January in Florida destroyed entire fields of tomatoes - along with some green beans, sweet corn and squash. The cold scarred the tomatoes, damaged their vines, and forced many farmers to delay their harvest.

The average wholesale price for a 25-pound box of tomatoes is now $30, up from $6.50 a year ago. Florida's growers would normally ship about 25 million pounds of tomatoes a week; right now, they're shipping less than a quarter of that, according to Reggie Brown of the Florida Tomato Grower's Exchange, a tomato farmer cooperative in Maitland.

Some parts of Florida saw average temperatures so low that this January and February were among the 10 coldest on record, according to the National Weather Service.

"Anecdotally, from talking to some real long timers, as well as people who watch the weather, this has been the most extended cold in maybe 60 years," said Terry McElroy, spokesman for the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.

Industry estimates suggest that about two-thirds of the tomato crop in the major southwestern production region was destroyed, according to a Feb. 25 United States Department of Agriculture report.

There's more bad news, Brown said: Because of the continued cold weather - 38-degree temperatures were predicted Friday in some central Florida growing areas - the current crop of fruit isn't as far along as everyone had hoped.

"We thought they'd recover by early April, but now it's mid-April," he said.

And because high demand has driven up domestic prices, many wholesalers are buying from Mexico instead.

"We're obviously losing market share to Mexico, and there's always a price to pay to get the customer to get back into the Florida market," Brown said.

Florida is the only place where tomatoes are grown on a large scale in the U.S. during winter. California doesn't grow them until later in the year, and much of that state's crop is used for processed foods, such as ketchup, sauce and juice. Other states grow tomatoes in greenhouses year- round, but Florida's winter tomato crop is by far the largest.

At Subway restaurants, the timing of this year's shortage was fortuitous: It hit right when the sandwich chain switches its tomato purchases from Florida to other regions.

While they so far haven't been impacted, managers are ordering different varieties of tomatoes to keep supplies steady, a spokesman said Thursday.

McDonald's Corp., CKE Restaurants Inc., (which owns Hardees, Carl Jr.) and Darden Restaurants (the nation's biggest casual dining chain, which owns Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Longhorn Steakhouse; Capital Grille; Seasons 52) said it's business as usual and no shortages are being reported.

Some Wendy's restaurants posted signs saying tomatoes would only be provided upon request because of limited availability.

But smaller restaurants are feeling the pinch. In Chicago, where a hot dog isn't a hot dog without chopped tomatoes, you might end up with just a bit less on the bun.

"We're a little more careful with our tomatoes," admitted Bill Murphy, owner of Murphy's Red Hots, which uses 75 to 100 pounds of the fruit a week. "You still owe it to your customers to get them out there and get them on the dogs. You try to get an extra piece out of every tomato if you can. You don't toss them around like they're pennies, you toss them around like they're quarters."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/...ml?tag=topnews

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

guess I'll plant tomatoes in the garden this year.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

i got some flour today 80 lbs for 20 bills . not bad . now i need to store it all

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

I can verify that. We snowmobile quite often above 8,000' and measure the snowpack by the stair steps left exposed at the cabin. A good snowpack and there's maybe 1 step uncovered by snow. Of 15 steps 8 are bare this year. So half the snowpack there should be.

Re: Food Shortage(s) thread
 

I guess it depends on how big your plasma is.:ARMS1: